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Last Updated On: February 13, 2025 | Published On: February 12, 2025
It’s not easy to get a decent estimate of your 2025-2026 H-1B visa lottery chances due to many complicated factors affecting your odds.
We understand this frustration, so we created this guide to explain those factors and show how they affect your lottery odds. Within, we explore historical trends, demonstrate how your degree type influences your chances, examine the rise in lottery participation over the years, and highlight USCIS’s efforts to combat fraud. Plus, we offer practical tips to improve your chances.
Bookmark this page for the latest H-1B lottery news, odds, and results. We will publish the 2025-2026 H-1B lottery chances as soon as the USCIS announces the lottery results.
Watch our video below where VisaNation Attorney Shilpa Malik discusses whether you can increase your odds:
H-1B Visa Lottery: A lottery system conducted by USCIS using random selection, including two rounds. One with 65,000 available visas, the regular cap (6,800 of these visas are set aside for Chile and Singapore citizens), and an additional round of 20,000 visas, the Master’s Cap, also known as advanced degree exemption.
Your chances for the 2025-2026 H-1B visa lottery depend on various factors including:
If you are interested in registering for the 2025-2026 H-1B visa lottery, contact VisaNation attorneys for submitting your registration. Contact Us
If you are interested in registering for the 2025-2026 H-1B visa lottery, contact VisaNation attorneys for submitting your registration.
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Let’s analyze two of the arguably most significant factors affecting your odds in the 2025-2026 visa lottery: increasing demand and degree type (Bachelor’s vs Master’s).
The demand for H-1B visas through the visa lottery has had a dramatic increase over the years. Let’s look at the below chart:
Eligible H-1B registrations and total selections over the years
In 2020, 269,424 eligible registrants participated in the visa lottery. Fast forward to 2024, and this number increased 74% to 470,342. Meanwhile, the total lottery selections have remained relatively stable over time. Overall, this shows the chances for earning an H-1B visa have become increasingly difficult. Now, let’s look at your degree type:
For Bachelor’s degree graduates not from Chile or Singapore: you will be competing for 58,200 visa slots. This is because 6,800 of the 65,000 H-1b visas in the regular cap round are exclusive to Chile and Singapore – roughly 11% fewer visas. Additionally, 20,000 visas are exclusive to Master’s degrees or higher
From there, the chances of selection are calculated by dividing eligible H-1B registrations by available visas for Bachelor’s graduates (58,200).
See the odds over the years:
From the above chart, the probability of securing an H-1B visa for Bachelor’s graduates has been falling since 2020 due to increased registrations. In 2020, chances were 21.6%, but fell steeply to 12.37% in 2024.
For Master’s graduates, if USCIS doesn’t select your registration in the first round, you have an additional chance. This is because they enter your application into a second round, the H-1B Master’s pool of 20,000 available visas.
This second round significantly boosts your odds compared to applicants with only a Bachelor’s degree. In 2019, USCIS stated that this additional round provided Master’s graduates with a 16% higher chance of selection.
Additionally, because the H-1B Master’s cap usually receives fewer applications, this generally improves your chances of being selected.
Let’s dive deeper:
*VisaNation immigration attorneys estimate that if approximately 35% of all eligible registrations in the visa lottery hold a Master’s degree, the odds of a Master’s graduate securing an H-1B visa for applicants, excluding Chile or Singapore, would be as above.
*Disclaimer: This is an approximation, as USCIS doesn’t always release data on the breakdown of a Master’s degree vs a Bachelor’s degree.
Looking at the same years as before, the estimated chances for a Master’s degree graduate in 2020 were 42.81% (vs. 21.6% for a Bachelor’s), while in 2024 they reduced to 24.52% (vs. 12.37% for Bachelor’s). The chances in both of these years are nearly double that of Bachelor’s graduates.
Similar to the Bachelor’s degree graduates, competition has impacted the odds, but a Master’s degree nonetheless greatly improves your odds of securing an H-1B visa.
There are a few strategies that can help you increase your chances of getting an H-1B visa.
There are a few ways to see if you were selected in the H-1B lottery. Here’s how to check your lottery status:
After the registration window closes, all registrations will say “Submitted.” Some will later change to “Selected,” “Denied,” or “Not Selected.” If USCIS needs to increase the registrations for either cap during the remainder of the fiscal year, it will select more registrations from the “Submitted” pool. After October 1, 2024, the remaining “Submitted” registrations will change to “Not Selected.”
If your petition is not selected in the lottery, USCIS will return your petition and filing fee unless determined to be a duplicate filing, in which case USCIS will return it without the fee.
If your petition was marked as “wait-listed,” it may replace an initially selected petition later found to be ineligible or denied. The USCIS has confirmed that it selects more petitions than are given in the cap in anticipation of some being withdrawn or rejected.
Find out all about Top H-1B Visa Myths.
USCIS expressed concern over a sharp rise in employers submitting multiple H-1B registrations for the same applicant, suspecting that some may be exploiting the system. Comparing the numbers between 2023 and 2024, the figures have risen significantly from 165,180 to 408,891 respectively. This marks an increase of 147%, with employers submitting an additional 243,711 multiple H-1B registrations.
Investigations by USCIS show the scale at 400,000 fraudulent registrations— almost half of all the registrations filed. To address fraud, USCIS has made it clear that employers attempting two entries into the registration process for one employee, in any manner, may lead USCIS to consider their registrations invalid. In such cases, USCIS has the authority to deny or revoke the approval of any H-1B lottery 2025 petitions, such as when both a passport and a travel document are submitted.
Furthermore, if an employer submits multiple registrations for a single beneficiary, all registrations for that beneficiary by the employer will be deemed invalid. USCIS holds the right to deny or revoke the approval of any petition filed for the beneficiary based on these invalid registrations.
Lastly, USCIS reiterates its power to deny H-1B petitioners or revoke an approved petition under certain circumstances. This includes instances where there is a change in the beneficiary’s identifying information from the registration to the petition, false attestation or invalidity of the underlying registration, an invalid registration fee, or when the H-1B cap-subject petition is not based on a valid registration.
Here’s a brief overview of how the H-1B cap lottery functions and your H-1B lottery chances for the fiscal year.
All H-1B registrations must be submitted during the registration window from March 7, 2025 – March 24, 2025. If you submit your registration outside this window, USCIS will issue a denial. All H-1B registrations submitted at any time during this window will have an equal chance of selection in the lottery. This means that every registration submitted within this time frame will be processed regardless of when in that time frame it was submitted.
Learn more about H-1B Processing Time.
To qualify as a cap-exempt registration for an H-1B visa, the applicant must either have been previously counted against the H-1B cap or be offered a position with a cap-exempt employer. Cap-exempt employers are typically:
A non-profit organization or entity is tax-exempt and either of the following under the Internal Revenue Service (IRS): section 501(c)(3), (c)(4), or (c)(6) (see 26 U.S.C. 501(c)(3), (c)(4), or (c)(6)). Also, the non-profit should be approved as a tax-exempt organization for research or educational services by the IRS.
Additionally, if you are already an H-1B visa holder and want to transfer employers or extend your status, then you have already been counted against the cap, and your registration will be considered cap-exempt.
Keep in mind that transferring your status from one employer to the next has a caveat. If you originally came to the U.S. through a cap-exempt employer, transferring to another cap-exempt employer is not a problem. However, if you decide to transfer to a cap-subject employer, you will need to go through the lottery process.
Check out Top H-1B Transfer Denial Reasons.
If you’re selected in the H-1B lottery, USCIS issues Form I-797C, Notice of Action, indicating selection and providing details like the employer’s name, identification number, and confirmation number. This form confirms the registration’s selection for the congressionally mandated cap and specifies the dates within which the H-1B petition must be filed exclusively for the identified beneficiary. It’s important to note that due to high filing volumes, there might be delays in receiving Form I-797 after filing the petition.
Petitioners should avoid submitting a second petition even if they haven’t received Form I-797 but have delivery confirmation, as this could lead to both petitions being denied or revoked. If more than 30 days pass without receiving Form I-797 after confirmed delivery, petitioners should contact the USCIS Contact Center for assistance.
Find out everything about H-1B Grace Period.
If you are selected in the H-1B lottery, your sponsor needs to file the I-129 petition within 90 days of receiving the selection notification. One of the documents needing to be filed and approved is the H-1B Labor Condition Application with the Department of Labor. Also included in the complete H-1B package are details about the beneficiary. An immigration lawyer is the best person to handle the submission packet to ensure all necessary details are included.
Once USCIS receives the complete application packet, you’ll receive a receipt notice. Premium processing is available for an additional $2,805, and it ensures USCIS will process it in 15 calendar days. After USCIS sends out the receipt notices, they’ll adjudicate the petitions, and you may receive more updated statuses plus any requests for evidence, if applicable. Sometimes USCIS needs more information on the beneficiary’s qualifications and the relationship between the employer and employee, among other documents.
The ideal scenario you will see is two case statuses, the first being “Case was Received” and then “Case was Approved.” Just remember that if you don’t select premium processing, then there’s really no telling how long processing your case will take, and it can sometimes take upwards of six months.
Another way to determine whether your H-1B petition has been selected in the lottery is to look at your bank statement to see if USCIS cashed the H-1B filing fee check. If it is cashed, be sure to make a note indicating the date.
You can see the most up-to-date filing fees here. VisaNation Law Group has some of the most competitive filing fees, including responding to RFEs. Please see this page for a more detailed outline of our H-1B attorney fees.
In recent years, the number of initial registrations has been trending higher and the selection rate for initial registrations has been trending lower. Keep in mind that USCIS selects higher than 85,000 registrations to account for 1. those selected candidates who end up not filing H-1B petitions and 2. anticipated denials of H-1B petitions.
For example, in the fiscal year 2024 H-1B lottery season, USCIS received a significantly higher number of petitions compared to the previous year. Specifically, 758,994 H-1B cap-eligible registrations were submitted. From these submissions, USCIS selected a total of 188,400 registrations over multiple rounds to meet the H-1B quota, equating to an approximate selection rate of 24.8%.
We calculated the rate of selection to be 16.6% in 2024. To calculate the selection rate, we divided eligible registrations (470,342) by available visas (78,200, which accounts for the 6,800 visas exclusive to Singaporean residents). Thus, the chances of selection were 16.6%.
Approximately 442,000 unique beneficiaries and 52,700 unique employers were recorded for 2024, which were comparable to the figures reported for FY 2023. However, the number of eligible registrations witnessed a substantial reduction, dropping from 758,994 in 2023 to 470,342 in 2024, marking a 38.6% decrease.
Ineligible registrations
Last year, USCIS received a total of 479,953 H-1B registrations but of that number, only 470,342 were considered eligible. The pool of registrations that were not considered eligible were either:
Note: USCIS did not provide any information regarding the breakdown of H-1B registrations between the Master’s quota and Regular quota, nor did they disclose any other metrics related to employers in FY 2024-25. While such data has been released in previous years, it was not this year.
Do H-1B chances vary by country? No, because the process is completely random. Beneficiaries from every country have the same odds. Whether you live in India, Spain or anywhere else, your chances in the H-1B Lottery are the same.
Nonetheless, USCIS has developed some interesting graphics breaking down the gender and number of registrations by country in 2022. From the chart, you can see an overwhelming majority of registrations are from India and China. Additionally, men tend to make up most of the registrations in India, China, and Mexico, but the opposite is true for the Philippines.
As USCIS updates its policies and procedures, staying informed is paramount for immigration clients seeking to navigate the H-1B cap registration process for FY 2026. By understanding the latest developments and seeking professional guidance, applicants and employers can navigate the immigration landscape with confidence and clarity. If you have questions regarding your H-1B case it’s highly recommended to schedule a consultation with our H-1B legal experts.
Premium processing does not increase your H-1B probability. It is an optional service that the USCIS offers for certain petitions, the I-129 being one of them. The fee is $2,805, and USCIS will process a petition in 15 calendar days rather than in the standard amount of time, which can take upwards of six months.
The H-1B lottery is currently entirely random. USCIS selects randomly from those who completed the H-1B registration accurately. Due to demand, USCIS randomly selects 85,000 registrations to be sent to processing. The demand is so high because the H-1B may seem easier due to the relatively low eligibility criteria compared to other nonimmigrant visas.
The H-1B visa requires you to:
The potential H-1B employer must fill out a Labor Certification Application for you.
This means that your employer must make four attestations to the Department of Labor:
The H-1B visa lottery process is complex, with strict rules around registrations and petitions, tight deadlines, and ever changing USCIS policies. VisaNation Law Group's experienced attorneys simplify the process, ensuring accurate and timely submissions. Don’t leave your H-1B future to chance—contact VisaNation for expert guidance!
Tags: H-1B cap, H-1B Lottery
